India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) announced on Wednesday that India’s fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is anticipated to be 4.75% of the gross domestic product (GDP), 19 basis points lower than initially budgeted. This reduction is attributed to the government’s fiscal discipline and subdued economic activity during the first half of the fiscal year. India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) stated that the government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26.
In her budget speech in July, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman projected the fiscal deficit to be 4.9% of GDP for the current financial year, with a target of reducing it to below 4.5% by 2025-26.
The fiscal deficit represents the government’s expenditure and revenue gap.
In a release, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) noted that high-frequency indicators point to a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of 2024-25, partly driven by reduced government spending. These factors are expected to result in the fiscal deficit for 2024-25 being lower than initially budgeted.
Furthermore, the revenue deficit is projected to be 12 basis points lower, at 1.66% of GDP, compared to the budgeted 1.78% of GDP for the current financial year.
"The union government’s fiscal outlook for 2024-25 appears promising, with the tax-to-GDP ratio likely to exceed the budget estimate. Although there has been some slippage in subsidies, capital expenditure is expected to be lower, around Rs 0.6 trillion," said Devendra Kumar Pant, Chief Economist and Head of Public Finance at Ind-Ra.
According to the budget estimates, capital expenditure was projected to be Rs 11.1 lakh crore in 2024-25. “Even with this slippage, capital expenditure in 2024-25 is estimated to have grown by 10.6% (FY25 Budget Estimate: 17.6%),” Pant noted.
The growth in capital expenditure was affected by the general elections held in May this year. However, the capex-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach a two-decade high of 3.21%, according to Ind-Ra.
While tax revenues are anticipated to perform better, non-tax revenues and disinvestment are likely to underperform.
Both gross and net tax revenues are projected to reach a 17-year high, at 12.02% of GDP and 8.08% of GDP, respectively, as per the agency’s estimates. Corporate tax collections grew by 6.5%, and income tax collections saw a significant rise of 20.7% year-on-year in 2024-25, as of November 10, according to official data.
Ind-Ra also estimates total revenue receipts to be 9.69% of GDP, slightly higher than the 9.59% budgeted for 2024-25.
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